---
title: "Launch day: what success looks like"
url: https://mdfy.app/mXy_aztt
updated: 2026-05-14T18:15:49.480Z
source: "mdfy.app"
---
# Launch day: what success looks like

> Show HN day plan. The thresholds I'm pre-committing to so I don't accidentally move them post-hoc.

## The realistic upside

**Top of HN front page for 4+ hours.** Requires hitting the front page within the first hour after posting (HN's ranking algorithm strongly favours early velocity) and sustaining engagement through the European afternoon and the US morning.

If this happens, I expect:
- 800-1500 sign-ups within 24h
- ~150-300 trial-to-keeper conversions (define "keeper" as: still has at least one doc 14 days post-sign-up)
- 4-6 inbound press / podcast queries
- 1-3 inbound investor reach-outs (which I'll defer politely; not raising)

## The reasonable mid case

**Front page for 1-2 hours, conversation in the 100-200 comment range.**

If this happens:
- 200-400 sign-ups
- 30-80 keepers
- The bigger value is the conversation itself — I'll mine the comments for what reads as the most compelling and the most repelling

## The downside

**Page 2-3, no significant discussion.**

If this happens:
- < 100 sign-ups, probably ~50
- The signal I take is "the framing didn't land", not "the product doesn't work." Re-write the framing, post again in 4 weeks under a different angle.

## What I'm NOT measuring on launch day

- **Revenue.** We're free during beta. Zero by design.
- **Server cost.** We're built on Supabase + Vercel; the marginal cost is rounding error.
- **Twitter/X engagement.** I'll tweet the launch but the HN comment thread is the actual signal channel.

## The non-negotiables

- **I respond to every comment** within 6 hours, personally, not via a marketing voice. The HN audience can smell PR from a screen away.
- **No upvote begging.** Posting to friends as "hey, shipped this" is fine. "Please upvote" is not.
- **No founder ego in the writing.** The Show HN post is technical and specific. No "revolutionary" / "disrupt" / "next-gen."